In July, China’s export growth continued its modest upward trend. This positive performance was driven by multiple factors, including the lingering resilience of global economic conditions, the ongoing “front-loading export” effect, and a marginal improvement in re-export trade growth.
Although the global manufacturing PMI declined to 49.7% in July (down from 50.4% in the previous month), it still demonstrated relative resilience overall.
Global economic growth is projected to reach 3.0% and 3.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the forecasts made in April this year. This adjustment not only reflects the IMF’s confidence in the global economic recovery but also provides Chinese exporters with broader market opportunities.
China’s port data further confirms the robust export activity. In July, container throughput at Chinese ports increased by 5.6% year-on-year (up from 3.1% in the previous month), while cargo throughput rose by 10.9% year-on-year (compared to 0.72% in the prior month). This growth trend indicates that Chinese ports, as critical hubs for international trade, are operating efficiently and providing solid logistical support for exports.
Against the backdrop of lingering uncertainty regarding tariff policies, the “front-loading export” effect continued in July. The highly anticipated question of whether the August 12 tariff buffer deadline would be extended remained unresolved after the latest round of China-U.S. trade talks at the end of July. This uncertainty led some companies to ship goods early to avoid potential tariff risks, resulting in orders being carried over to July.
The daily average number of container ships departing from China to the U.S. rose to 67.4 in July, up from 66 in June, indicating a continued modest increase. This data clearly reflects the persistence of the “front-loading export” effect. By advancing production and shipping schedules, companies ensured their products could be exported smoothly before potential tariff adjustments, thereby reducing operational risks and sustaining stable export growth.
In summary, the modest rebound in China’s export growth in July was the result of multiple factors working together. Against the backdrop of resilient global economic conditions, persistent “front-loading export” dynamics, and a marginal improvement in re-export trade growth, China’s export sector is expected to maintain steady expansion. However, it is important to recognize that the international trade environment remains complex and volatile, with factors such as tariff policies and geopolitical tensions potentially impacting exports. Therefore, exporters must closely monitor market developments, strengthen risk management, and continuously enhance their competitiveness to navigate various challenges.
Source: People’s Daily Online
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